CLEVELAND, Ohio — The East’s most recent champion has led the conference in wins for five straight
seasons. The champs’ top challenger has appeared in five of the last seven conference finals.
And both teams are led by giant superstars with plenty of prime remaining.
The Bucks, led by 28-year-old Giannis Antetokounmpo (6-foot-11), and Celtics, led by 25-year-old
Jayson Tatum (6-8), comprise the final level of cleveland.com’s Threat-Con series, which evaluates
Eastern Conference teams based on their threat to the Cavs’ title hopes.
The Bucks secured their near future by retaining free agents Khris Middleton and Brooke Lopez, who
played key roles on the 2020-21 title team, for two years apiece this offseason (Middleton signed a three-
year deal with a player option in the third year).
The Bucks entered last season with the league’s oldest roster by about 1.5 years over the second-place
Heat, which will no longer count the now-retired Udonis Haslem, 43, toward that average next season.
Milwaukee only rostered four players (two rookies) aged younger than 27, and it only played one — 22-
year-old MarJon Beauchamp — in more than half of its games (52).
Maybe he wouldn’t have to. The Greak Freek has been the Bucks’ only All-NBA player throughout their
five-year run (even if Middleton and Holiday have been deserving). Antetokounmpo has never played
fewer than 63 regular-season games, and Milwaukee has earned the East’s top seed during seasons
where Middleton played 33 games (2022-23), Lopez played 13 games (2021-22) and before Holiday
arrived via trade (2018-2020).
Tatum played in his first Eastern Conference Finals in 2018. Tatum just played in his third, and he won’t
turn 26 until next March.
What a life for Brad Stevens, Boston’s top executive: The Celtics found their star for the rest of this decade, and assuming Jaylen Brown (27 in October) signs his super-max extension this summer, they might also have his second banana. The tricky part is filling the gaps with role players that may have to accept less money given the CBA’s punishing new luxury tax rules.
Brown’s new deal would occupy 35% of Boston’s salary cap. Tatum is eligible for the same contract next summer. And the Celtics are only $3 million under the super tax as we speak, before either star forward has signed his deal.
As a reminder, teams that eclipse the super tax marker — about $182.7 million this offseason — cannot use the league’s mid-level exception, sign buyout players who made more than the mid-level on their previous contract or trade their first-round pick seven years in advance. They also can’t use cash in trades or aggregate contracts to match salaries in trades (example: two $10 million contracts to trade for a $20 million player). And if a team exceeds that threshold twice in five years, their first-round pick seven years out moves to the end of the round, no matter how the team finishes during that season.
In other words, signing Brown and Tatum to super-max extensions means Boston must either skimp on their supporting cast’s contracts or on future roster-building tools. The stakes are high every season it spends above the super tax.
But those same penalties — and tough decisions — would apply to any Cleveland team that features contract extensions for Mitchell, Mobley and Allen (Garland’s current deal runs through 2027-28), or even two of those three. And while Cavs owner Dan Gilbert has always spent big on teams with title potential, teams like Boston and Milwaukee could complicate his calculus.
Say the Celtics and Bucks continue their reign over the East. The Bucks win two more titles; Boston wins one. They meet often in the conference finals, and one of them usually beats the Cavs on their way.
Is Cleveland incapable of winning a title in that scenario? Or is it simply stuck in greatness’ shadow? The difference is hard to decipher when the bills come due, which happens faster than usual under the new league rules. So for the Cavs to maintain their long competitive runway, they’ll likely have to end a behemoth’s.
One has a two-time MVP and the conference’s best record five years running. The other has two star wings that have already won 10 playoff series.
Who are you betting against?
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