I had stepped out of my modest office, taking a coffee break and wandering near the posh offices of the Almost Perfect Picks Department. The Nerds were on break, munching on Little Debbies and sipping Diet Dr Peppers in the hallway between the War Room and the Break Room.
I nodded at them, knowing better than to start a conversation (you’ve got to know your audience). They didn’t nod back.
Soon after, the Grand Geek emerged from the Executive Suite. Glad to see him, I greeted him.
“Do you know the difference between feast and famine?” he asked right away.
“Well,” I began, “I worked my way through college, but I’ve been to plenty of nice banquets and receptions as an adult, so I know both Raman noodles and—”
He cut me off.
“Right, but I’m talking business.
“The difference between feast and famine can be a point or two.”
He went on to explain that there were eight SEC games this week, and in six of them, the point spread was between 1 and 4 ½, making them virtual toss-ups.
“Also, five of those games have the visiting team favored, which always raises a caution flag. The boys have been sweating it out this week.”
Switching gears, he asked, “Have you dined at the Alamite?” referring to Nick Saban’s fancy downtown hotel.
“Not yet,” I replied, “though once, while golfing, he faced a tough chip shot and told me, ‘This isn’t my forte.’ I figured it was a hint to check out the hotel’s rooftop bar and grill—The Forte.”
“I’m dining there again tonight,” he said. “Quite a feast.”
Taking the weekly report in hand, I mused, “Gambling this week might lead to dining on Raman noodles.”
The report itself? For the year, the record stood at 60-13 on picking winners, 38-32 against the betting line, and 35-35 on the over-under.
Here are this week’s SEC games with spreads and total points from Caesars Sportsbook:
**Auburn (2-4, 0-3 SEC) at Missouri (5-1, 1-1)**: Missouri is favored by 4 ½, over-under at 51 ½. If this game were at Auburn, we’d lean toward them because of the magic at Jordan-Hare, but Missouri holds the edge with a better passing game and home field advantage. *Pick: Missouri 27, Auburn 24.*
**South Carolina (3-3, 1-3) at Oklahoma (4-2, 1-2)**: Oklahoma favored by 3, over-under at 40 ½. South Carolina knows Oklahoma’s Coach Brent Venables from his time as Clemson’s defensive coordinator, but there’s a difference between being a coordinator and a head coach. While Oklahoma hasn’t met expectations, we’re taking Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks in a mild upset. *Pick: South Carolina 24, Oklahoma 17.*
**Texas A&M (5-1, 3-0) at Mississippi State (1-5, 0-3)**: Texas A&M is favored by 15, with an over-under of 56. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 30 to 45 points in each of their five losses, and with Aggies QB Conner Weigman playing well after returning from injury, this will likely be another long day for the Bulldogs. *Pick: Texas A&M 41, Mississippi State 17.*
**Ball State (2-4) at Vanderbilt (4-2, 2-1)**: Vanderbilt is favored by 28 ½, with an over-under of 58 ½. This looks like an easy win for Vanderbilt, even if they rest star quarterback Diego Pavia. *Pick: Vanderbilt 35, Ball State 6.*
**LSU (5-1, 2-0) at Arkansas (4-2, 2-1)**: LSU favored by 3, over-under at 54 ½. Arkansas, fresh off a win over Tennessee, has momentum, but LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier has the tools to hit big plays. Plus, LSU loves playing at night. *Pick: LSU 31, Arkansas 27.*
**Georgia (5-1, 3-1) at Texas (6-0, 2-0)**: Texas is favored by 3 ½, over-under set at 56. Both teams feature top-tier quarterbacks and talent, but Texas has been more complete, albeit against a softer schedule. Expect a back-and-forth game. *Pick: Texas 31, Georgia 27.*
**Kentucky (3-3, 1-3) at Florida (3-3, 1-2)**: Florida favored by 1, with an over-under of 42 ½. Neither team has inspired confidence lately, but we’re giving the edge to Florida at home. *Pick: Florida 24, Kentucky 21.*
**Alabama (5-1, 2-1) at Tennessee (5-1, 2-1)**: Alabama favored by 3, with an over-under of 56. While neither team has been at their best in recent weeks, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe gives them the edge in this pivotal game. *Pick: Alabama 31, Tennessee 27.*
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