The Kristaps Porzingis gambit

It’s been a tumultuous offseason for the Boston Celtics, to say the least. Fresh off an Eastern Conference Finals defeat to

Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat, the Celtics have faced down questions about their ability to take the next step and claim a

championship. Ready for a shake-up, President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens made his move: Marcus Smart out,

Kristaps Porzingis in.

Porzingis joins the Celtics with the dreaded “injury prone” label hanging over his head, but for their part, the front office

doesn’t seem deterred. During his tenure, Stevens has shown a willingness to roll the dice on injury risk. He extended Robert

Williams III to a four-year, $54 million contract in his first offseason at the helm, and dealt a package that included a first-

round pick for Indiana’s Malcolm Brogdon in his second.

The effectiveness of these gambles has been mixed. Williams has struggled to stay available, missing large chunks of each of

the last two seasons, while Brogdon was a liability due to injury in the Eastern Conference Finals this past summer. Still,

there’s no denying the value. The $13.5 million AAV for a player with Williams’ talent is a bargain as the cap continues to

rise, while the Sixth Man of the Year cost them just the 29th pick in the draft and zero rotation players from their NBA

Finals run.

Now, the Celtics have appeared to capitalize on risk once again. For the price of Smart, they acquired a talent upgrade in

Porzingis, while moving up 10 spots in this summer’s draft and tacking on an additional first round pick next year for good

measure.

Feelings about Smart and his worth to the organization aside, this was a home run from a value perspective. Teams don’t

often add players of Porzingis’ stature and receive first round picks for their trouble. The trade came with a subsequent

extension for Porzingis, adding two years and $60 million to the $36 million player option this season that he picked up to

facilitate the deal.

There are two ways to look at this. The positive read is a pretty simple one: it’s a sub-max contract for a player who arguably

provided max value last season. Porzingis was outstanding for the Washington Wizards last season, unquestionably the

bright spot in what was otherwise another lost season in DC.

He averaged a career-high 23.2 points per game and scorched the nets to the tune of a 38.5% mark from behind the three-

point arc, and he’s a high-level shot blocker and rim protector. In a basketball sense, he makes this team better.

The drawbacks are more complex. This is now a three-year union with a center who has played more than 60 games in a

season just once since 2017 and has an ACL tear in his past. Health isn’t a given for any frontcourt player, considering the

physical demands of the position. At 7-foot-3, Porzingis falls on the extreme end of that spectrum. Players that big

notoriously struggle with durability — it’s just a fact of basketball life for players that size.

Porzingis will take up 20% of the team’s cap for two years after this season. It’s not an unreasonable deal. Porzingis was

eligible for $17 million more than he received, so it in fact constitutes a healthy discount on the part of the Celtics. Even still,

that $30 million per season would feel a lot better if it were more certain what it could bring.

With a career-high of 72 games played across a full season — in his rookie year, one surgically repaired ACL ago — it’s fair to

question whether he can be expected to hold up across a full NBA regular season and a deep postseason run.