Liverpool is on top in an alternative Premier League table, confirming Jürgen Klopp’s strong start and making Newcastle complaints look a little misguided.
Liverpool heads into the international break with the wind firmly taken out of its sails. It’s hardly been a catastrophic couple of weeks, but five dropped points in the last two games have dented what was an increasingly buoyant mood.
But there will certainly be no panic for Jürgen Klopp and his players. There has to be an acceptance that the loss against Spurs was a direct result of an awful VAR error, while Liverpool became the first team to post greater possession and higher expected goals away to Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton on the way to a reasonable point.
The underlying performances remain good. Even the results are far from alarming, as Liverpool’s position just three points off the summit attests.
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In fact, according to an ‘alternative’ Premier League table, Liverpool has actually had the best start of any side in the division. It sits top of the Relative Performance Index (RPI).
A SoccerStats innovation, this multiplies points per game by the points per game achieved by opponents, thus neatly factoring in the difficulty of fixtures. Liverpool has achieved the fourth-highest actual points tally while facing the fourth-hardest fixtures, enough for a place at the very top of the tree.
Liverpool’s wins have effectively been worth 3.37 points per game, given the difficulty of the matches. Interestingly, only Aston Villa can also boast a tally higher than the real-life maximum of three points (3.08), while Arsenal, Brighton, Newcastle United and Manchester City complete the top six in this other Premier League table.
We’ve heard a lot about fixture difficulty so far this season, not least from Newcastle. Stealing in to claim a Champions League place last campaign, its relatively slow start has been pinned on the games it has had to play, but the RPI concludes Liverpool has actually had the tougher task.
There’s no doubt Newcastle has had to handle some hard matches. Aston Villa, Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton have all averaged at least two points per game so far, meaning the RPI would acknowledge that Eddie Howe’s side had the trickiest immediate set of fixtures (from which it took just three points).
But subsequent games against Brentford, Sheffield United, Burnley and West Ham have more than made up for that start. Admittedly, Newcastle has mostly capitalized on the upturn in fixtures, winning three out of four and only failing to beat the highest-ranked opposition within the set — David Moyes’ side, with whom Howe drew 2-2 at the weekend.
That suggests Howe is at least doing well at winning the games his side is ‘supposed’ to win. But whether that will be enough to consolidate a place in the Champions League is unclear.
Even with the potential for five qualifying places, there are no guarantees for Newcastle. New challenger Aston Villa is certainly not strapped for cash either, and is performing very well relative to its fixture difficulty, while Manchester City can surely be expected to finish ahead of Howe’s side in the real Premier League table.
For Liverpool, this alternative table gives room for renewed optimism of not only a place back in the Champions League but potentially a push for the title as well. Not only has Klopp masterminded a strong start considering the scale of change in his side’s engine room, he has got points on the board amid a very difficult run of games. It’s a feat which has not been given enough recognition, especially amid the dented optimism of the last couple of weeks.
The fixture list eases up after the international break. Even if Klopp gets back to winning ways, that may see Liverpool drop down the RPI table a little, with wins against the likes of Everton, Luton and Nottingham Forest worth less than others. But having stayed in touch with the leaders in the Premier League table that truly matters, striding clear of Newcastle in the process, the Reds are now in a strong position to capitalize on a nice run of games.
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