While Liverpool have had a few hiccups in the Premier League this season, their Europa League campaign has gone off without a hitch, with the Reds sitting atop Group E with a maximum haul of nine points.
Jurgen Klopp’s side will defend their unbeaten record against Toulouse in France on Thursday evening, hoping for a result similar to the 5-1 thrashing they gave the Ligue 1 club at Anfield a fortnight ago.
As the group stage of the competition approaches the halfway point this week, the first few places in the knockout rounds could be secured, while other clubs’ fates could be sealed for the worse.
Let’s take a look at the table so far and talk through the various scenarios in play for Liverpool ahead of their fourth Group E match.
Is Liverpool certain to advance to the next round of the Europa League?
The Reds still have some work to do to ensure their place in the knockout rounds of the competition. However, a win over Toulouse on Thursday would almost certainly guarantee their place in the round of 32.
The only certainty at this point is that Klopp’s team will play some form of European football in the spring if they do not finish last in this group.
The only way LASK can finish ahead of us is for them to win their three remaining matches and us to lose all of ours. Even then, they’d have to beat us by two goals or more, with head-to-head results the first separator of teams who finish level on points, and Liverpool winning 3-1 in Austria in September.
Even if LASK managed to overtake us in the final group table, we would not finish at the bottom. Toulouse or Union Saint-Gilloise could also beat us to the finish line, but not both.
If they both beat us but lose to the Austrians, they’d have seven points each, but they also play each other again, so they could draw and both end up with eight points (in which case we’d qualify regardless), or one loses and ends up with seven.
If Liverpool finishes third in their group, they will be relegated to the Europa Conference League knockout round play-offs in February.
Could Liverpool lose all their matches and still progress in the Europa League?
Surprisingly, the answer is yes.
Assume LASK and Union tie this week, giving them one and five points, respectively. Even if they beat us at Anfield, the former would be unable to catch us.
If Union lose in Toulouse on matchday five but beat the Reds in Belgium next month, they’d finish with eight points, one fewer than Klopp’s team.
Would a draw be enough for Liverpool to qualify from their Europa League group this week?
It almost certainly would, and it definitely would if Union fail to beat LASK in Austria.
A draw for Liverpool on Thursday would leave us five points ahead of Toulouse, who’d then have to win both their remaining matches (and we’d have to lose our final two) to go above us. One of those games is against Union, and should the French side win that, the Belgians would no longer be able to catch us if they fail to beat LASK.
The only way in which a draw for the Reds wouldn’t confirm their progression is if Union were to win and move to seven points, Toulouse win their final two games and we lose both of ours (even then Union would have to beat us by three goals or more in Belgium after our 2-0 win at Anfield).
Does a win in Toulouse guarantee Liverpool’s place in the Europa League knockout rounds and can they be confirmed as group winners this week?
The answer to both questions is yes. A Liverpool win on Thursday makes it impossible for both Toulouse and LASK to catch us, no matter what else happens.
If we win in France, and Union fail to beat LASK in Austria, we’d be either seven or eight points clear at the top of the group with two games to spare, and duly confirmed as winners of Group E. That’d be significant as it’d mean we bypass the play-off round in February and go straight into the round of 16 in March.
Apart from easing potential fixture congestion in February (when we could potentially be in the Carabao Cup final and thus have our Premier League match at home to Luton rescheduled), it would also give Klopp the luxury of resting his players for the final two group games against LASK and Union in the knowledge that top spot has been secured.
With Liverpool already scheduled to play 10 games in 32 days from the end of the November international break to Boxing Day, the opportunity to rest key players for European games of no consequence would be extremely welcome.
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