Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool have been underestimated by a number of pundits, but the Reds manager won’t mind because he can use it to his advantage in the Premier League.
Six pundits may owe Jürgen Klopp an apology as Liverpool continues to defy expectations.
Before the Premier League season began, a Twenty First Group model gave Liverpool a 12% chance of winning the title, level with Arsenal but less than a fifth as likely as reigning champion Manchester City (63%). After failing to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since 2016, the Reds were at least backed to return, with the model estimating their chances at 63%.
Despite that data-driven confidence, six of the BBC’s 27 pundits polled prior to the 2023/24 season — Ellen White, Fara Williams, Lindsay Johnson, Chris Waddle, Rachel Brown-Finnis, and Glen Murray — left Liverpool out of the top four entirely. Ten had the Reds in their top three, with only one (Shay Given) having them in the top two.
But Liverpool’s start has exceeded expectations. With 23 points from a possible 30, the Twenty First Group now rates its title chances at 17%, 1% ahead of Arsenal and 1% closer to Man City (59%), with its top-four prospects increasing to 89%.
That reflects the commanding lead Liverpool has established over some of the teams expected to beat it in the Champions League race. Already, the 2019/20 champion is six points ahead of Newcastle, eight points ahead of Manchester United, and 11 points ahead of Chelsea.
If it goes on to finish comfortably in the top four, which should be the minimum expectation at this point, those six pundits will undoubtedly owe Jürgen Klopp an apology. But, in the meantime, it’s worth considering why Liverpool was overlooked.
There’s a chance that people overestimated Manchester United and Newcastle after they finished above Liverpool last year, despite the fact that they benefited from a bad season at Anfield. Klopp’s team failed to win half of its games (19 wins, 10 draws, and nine defeats), but it was only four points out of fourth place.
By the same token, it appears that many were too quick to write off the Reds, despite the fact that players like Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold seemed destined to rediscover their form following a late-season improvement. When you consider that the club had rebuilt its ageing and dysfunctional midfield, the improvement seemed unavoidable.
While some fans may be disappointed that their team was overlooked, it will benefit the team as a whole. This season, Liverpool has been able to operate without the pressure of being the favorites, which it struggled to deal with in 2018/19, when it dropped points against Leicester, West Ham, Everton, and Manchester United in a six-game span, surrendering a commanding lead over Manchester City. Dropping points hasn’t felt as unconscionable as it has in previous campaigns because this feels like the start of the ‘Liverpool 2.0’ project, and it’s hardly title or bust.
Liverpool has been able to play the role of hunter rather than hunted, which will suffice. The Reds are free of expectation and can adopt the underdog mentality that was so effective during Klopp’s early reign.
From another angle, some players may be carrying a chip on their shoulder as they try to re-establish themselves as the best in their respective positions and ensure the team is treated with respect. In general, it’s better to be underestimated, because Liverpool can simply lurk behind Manchester City, Arsenal, and Tottenham, laying the groundwork for a title charge come spring.
Listen to the most recent episode of the Liverpool.com podcast, which features writer David Comerford and editor Matt Addison, for a comprehensive deep dive into the Premier League title race after the first ten games of the season. You can watch our full discussion at the top of this article or on YouTube, and you can listen to the audio version on all the usual platforms, including Spotify.
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